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Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
Data as of:2025-10-01
Last updated:
Source:IBGE (via FRED)
Status:LIVE
Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
As of December 2025, growth remains steady at 0.15%. Inflation at 4.50% is within the BCB's 1.5–4.5% target band. The BCB is holding rates steady.
Central Bank of Brazil held rates at 14.04%. With inflation at 4.5%, patience likely warranted.
As of December 2025, growth remains steady at 0.15%. Inflation at 4.50% is within the BCB's 1.5–4.5% target band. The BCB is holding rates steady.
Government Revenue vs. Expenditure (Billions BRL)
Variable follows prime; fixed follows bond yields + spreads. See Rate Transmission for details.
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Data refresh in progress for: Policy Rate, Inflation, GDP.
Central Bank of Brazil has set the policy rate at 14.041%. Policy is currently on hold. With inflation at 4.50%, above typical targets, rate cuts may be constrained.
Growth is subdued at 0.15%. The labor market shows signs of weakness with unemployment at 6.10%.
The yield curve is inverted (-1.000pp spread), which has historically preceded economic slowdowns. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by longer-term yields.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil (via FRED), IBGE (Dec 2025), IBGE (via FRED)
Data is aggregated from primary national statistical agencies. 'Regime' is a proprietary calculated metric based on growth, inflation, and policy stance indicators.
Read full methodologyBorrower fit guidance only. See Mortgage Rate Outlook for rate scenarios.
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R$11.0T | 78% | -2.5% | 14% | -7.8% | 4.6% |
| 2023 | R$10.2T | 74% | -1.6% | 15% | -4.6% | 4.6% |
| 2022 | R$9.9T | 72% | -2.9% | 14% | -4.2% | 5.8% |
Annual data typically lags 1–2 years. Rows marked Forecast are IMF projections. One year changes may not reflect the underlying trend — compare across 3–5 years.
Data sourced from IBGE. Brazil is a major agricultural exporter (soybeans, coffee, beef, sugar). Services dominate GDP but the agribusiness sector has been growing in importance. Key industries include food processing, automotive, steel, and petrochemicals.