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Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
Data as of:2025-Q4
Last updated:
Source:Statistics Canada
Status:LIVE
Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
As of March 2026, growth momentum is softening with GDP at -0.60%. Inflation at 2.40% is within the BoC's 1–3% target band. The BoC is holding rates steady.
No specific guidance is provided in the announcement.
View official statement ↗As of March 2026, growth momentum is softening with GDP at -0.60%. Inflation at 2.40% is within the BoC's 1–3% target band. The BoC is holding rates steady.
Government Revenue vs. Expenditure (Billions CAD)
Variable follows prime; fixed follows bond yields + spreads. See Rate Transmission for details.
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Insights and analysis from Bank of Canada economists
Views expressed are solely those of the authors
Data refresh in progress for: Inflation, Unemployment.
Bank of Canada has set the policy rate at 2.250%. The most recent action was a 25 basis point cut. Inflation at 2.40% is near the typical 2% target.
The economy is contracting, with GDP growth at -0.60%. The labor market shows signs of weakness with unemployment at 6.70%.
The yield curve has a normal upward slope (0.630pp spread). Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by longer-term yields.
Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada
Data is aggregated from primary national statistical agencies. 'Regime' is a proprietary calculated metric based on growth, inflation, and policy stance indicators.
Read full methodologyBorrower fit guidance only. See Mortgage Rate Outlook for rate scenarios.
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.3T | 105% | -0.3% | 5.5% | -1.4% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $2.2T | 106% | -0.4% | 5.8% | -1.5% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $2.1T | 107% | -0.5% | 6.2% | -1.3% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $2.0T | 105% | -0.3% | 5.0% | -1.0% | 6.8% |
| 2021 | $1.9T | 110% | 0.1% | 11.0% | -4.0% | 3.4% |
| 2020 | $1.7T | 118% | -1.8% | 18.0% | -15.0% | 0.7% |
Annual data typically lags 1–2 years. Rows marked Forecast are IMF projections. One year changes may not reflect the underlying trend — compare across 3–5 years.
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