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Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
Data as of:2025-Q4
Last updated:
Source:NBS (Q4 2025)
Status:CACHED
Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
As of January 2026, growth momentum is improving with GDP at 5.00%. Inflation at 0.60% is below the PBoC's 3% target. The PBoC is holding rates steady.
People's Bank of China held rates at 3.00%. With inflation at 0.6%, the door to easing may be open.
As of January 2026, growth momentum is improving with GDP at 5.00%. Inflation at 0.60% is below the PBoC's 3% target. The PBoC is holding rates steady.
Government Revenue vs. Expenditure (Trillions CNY)
Variable follows prime; fixed follows bond yields + spreads. See Rate Transmission for details.
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Data refresh in progress for: Inflation, Unemployment.
People's Bank of China has set the policy rate at 3.000%. Policy is currently on hold. With inflation at 0.60%, below target, there may be room for further easing.
The economy is growing robustly at 5.00%. Unemployment stands at 5.00%.
The yield curve is relatively flat (0.330pp spread), suggesting cautious growth expectations. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by longer-term yields.
Sources: PBoC (Dec 2025), NBS (Jan 2026), NBS (Q4 2025)
Data is aggregated from primary national statistical agencies. 'Regime' is a proprietary calculated metric based on growth, inflation, and policy stance indicators.
Read full methodologyBorrower fit guidance only. See Mortgage Rate Outlook for rate scenarios.
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ¥130T | 83% | +1.5% | 45% | -7.1% | 0.2% |
| 2023 | ¥126T | 77% | +1.4% | 44% | -7.4% | 0.2% |
| 2022 | ¥121T | 72% | +2.3% | 46% | -4.7% | 2.0% |
Annual data typically lags 1–2 years. Rows marked Forecast are IMF projections. One year changes may not reflect the underlying trend — compare across 3–5 years.
Data sourced from NBS China. China has the world's largest manufacturing sector and is transitioning toward a service-based economy. Key industries include electronics, automotive, machinery, textiles, and construction. The property sector has been a significant driver of growth historically.