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Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
Data as of:2025-10-01
Last updated:
Source:ONS (via FRED)
Status:LIVE
Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
As of December 2025, growth remains steady at 0.05%. Inflation at 2.50% is within the BoE's 1–3% target band. The BoE continues its easing cycle.
Bank of England has cut rates by 25 bps to 3.73%. With inflation at 2.5%, the pace of cuts may depend on price pressures.
As of December 2025, growth remains steady at 0.05%. Inflation at 2.50% is within the BoE's 1–3% target band. The BoE continues its easing cycle.
Government Revenue vs. Expenditure (Billions GBP)
Variable follows prime; fixed follows bond yields + spreads. See Rate Transmission for details.
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Data refresh in progress for: Inflation, Unemployment, GDP.
Bank of England has set the policy rate at 3.731%. The most recent action was a 25 basis point hike. Inflation at 2.50% is near the typical 2% target.
Growth is subdued at 0.05%. Unemployment stands at 5.20%.
The yield curve is relatively flat (0.100pp spread), suggesting cautious growth expectations. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by longer-term yields.
Sources: Bank of England (via FRED), ONS (Dec 2025), ONS (via FRED)
Data is aggregated from primary national statistical agencies. 'Regime' is a proprietary calculated metric based on growth, inflation, and policy stance indicators.
Read full methodologyBorrower fit guidance only. See Mortgage Rate Outlook for rate scenarios.
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | £2.7T | 100% | -3.1% | 10% | -4.4% | 2.6% |
| 2023 | £2.6T | 98% | -3.2% | 9% | -5.2% | 7.3% |
| 2022 | £2.5T | 97% | -3.8% | 8% | -5.0% | 9.1% |
| 2021 | £2.3T | 103% | -2.5% | 14% | -7.9% | 2.6% |
| 2020 | £2.1T | 106% | -2.6% | 19% | -14.8% | 0.9% |
Annual data typically lags 1–2 years. Rows marked Forecast are IMF projections. One year changes may not reflect the underlying trend — compare across 3–5 years.
Data sourced from World Bank. This is a Tier B (3-sector) breakdown. The UK has a highly services-oriented economy, with financial services centered in London. Manufacturing has declined significantly since the 1980s. More detailed industry breakdown available from ONS (Office for National Statistics).