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Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
Data as of:2025-10-01
Last updated:
Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)
Status:LIVE
Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
As of March 2026, growth momentum is softening with GDP at 0.50%. Inflation at 3.30% is above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed continues its easing cycle.
Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 bps to 3.64%. With inflation at 3.3%, the pace of cuts may depend on price pressures.
As of March 2026, growth momentum is softening with GDP at 0.50%. Inflation at 3.30% is above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed continues its easing cycle.
Government Revenue vs. Expenditure (Billions USD)
Variable follows prime; fixed follows bond yields + spreads. See Rate Transmission for details.
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Data refresh in progress for: Inflation, Unemployment, GDP.
Federal Reserve has set the policy rate at 3.640%. The most recent action was a 25 basis point cut. With inflation at 3.30%, above typical targets, rate cuts may be constrained.
Growth is subdued at 0.50%. Unemployment stands at 4.30%.
The yield curve has a normal upward slope (0.570pp spread). Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by longer-term yields.
Sources: Federal Reserve (via FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED), Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)
Data is aggregated from primary national statistical agencies. 'Regime' is a proprietary calculated metric based on growth, inflation, and policy stance indicators.
Read full methodologyBorrower fit guidance only. See Mortgage Rate Outlook for rate scenarios.
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $29.9T | 126% | -3.2% | 4.2% | -6.8% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | $28.8T | 124% | -3.1% | 4.0% | -6.5% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $27.4T | 122% | -3.0% | 3.8% | -6.3% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $25.5T | 121% | -3.8% | 3.3% | -5.4% | 6.5% |
| 2021 | $23.3T | 126% | -3.6% | 12.0% | -12.0% | 7.0% |
| 2020 | $21.0T | 128% | -2.9% | 15.0% | -15.0% | 1.2% |
Annual data typically lags 1–2 years. Rows marked Forecast are IMF projections. One year changes may not reflect the underlying trend — compare across 3–5 years.
The first comprehensive review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement begins in 2026, with all three countries examining the agreement's effectiveness and potential updates.
Ongoing negotiations on technology transfer and market access continue, with tariffs on certain goods remaining in place.
Administration reviews Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, considering adjustments for key allies.
Stay updated with official trade information