Data as of:2025-07-01
Fetched:
Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)
Status:LIVE
Data may be stale: latest observation is 2025-07-01 (175 days ago). quarterly data typically updates within 110 days.
Federal Reserve
Hold (Ease Bias)Policy Rate: 4.50%
- FOMC signaled patience with further rate cuts.
- Inflation progress has stalled near 2.8%.
- Powell emphasized data-dependent approach for 2026.
Since:
Next meeting:
Last change:-25 bps
Neutral rate:Not available
Decision lens for borrowers: variable vs fixed
How mortgage rates are set here
Variable
Fed Funds → Prime → Variable
The Federal Reserve sets the fed funds rate. Banks add a spread (typically 3%) to derive prime rate. Variable-rate loans (HELOCs, ARMs) adjust with prime, so Fed policy moves affect you directly and quickly.
Fixed
10Y Treasury → Mortgage-Backed Spreads → Fixed
Fixed mortgage rates are priced off Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities. Even if the Fed holds rates steady, bond markets can push fixed rates up or down based on inflation expectations and investor demand.
Decision lens
Base Case
- Fed begins gradual easing cycle in 2024 as inflation moderates toward 2% target.
- Total of 100-200bp of cuts expected over 12-24 months in central scenario.
- Terminal rate settles around 3.0-3.5%, above pre-pandemic neutral.
- Labor market remains resilient with gradual cooling rather than sharp contraction.
Faster Cuts If…
- Unemployment rises sharply above 4.5%, signaling labor market deterioration.
- Financial stress emerges in banking sector or credit markets.
- Inflation undershoots 2% target for consecutive months.
- Global slowdown or recession spills into US economy.
Higher-for-Longer If…
- Core services inflation remains sticky above 3%.
- Wage growth stays elevated, sustaining demand-side pressure.
- Trade policy uncertainty or tariff escalation reignites goods inflation.
- Fiscal spending keeps aggregate demand elevated despite tight policy.
Signals to watch
- Monthly CPI/PCE prints and Fed-preferred core measures
- Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth
- FOMC dot plot and meeting minutes tone
- 10Y Treasury yield direction
- Credit spreads and financial conditions indices
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Currency & FX Lens
$
USD is the base currency. FX pair not applicable.
How variable vs fixed moves in United States
Variable
- Linked to Federal Reserve policy rate → prime/base rate
- Adjusts relatively quickly when central bank moves
Fixed
- Priced off government bond yields + lender spreads
- Can move independently of policy rate based on bond market expectations
Central bank→Short rates→Variable mortgages
Bond yields→Funding costs→Fixed mortgages
For advisors & borrowers
Choosing Variable
When it tends to fit
- When near the top of the rate cycle with cuts expected
- For borrowers with financial flexibility
- Short-term horizons or ability to refinance
Main risks
- Rates stay elevated longer than expected
- Monthly payments fluctuate with policy changes
Choosing Fixed
When it tends to fit
- When seeking payment certainty in uncertain times
- For long-term holds with stable income needs
- When current fixed rates are historically reasonable
Main risks
- Miss out if rates fall significantly
- Higher initial cost vs variable in some scenarios
General guidance based on current regime. Not personalized financial advice.
Recent releases
| Date | Metric | Value | Δ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 | CPI (YoY) | 2.8% | +0.0% | BLS |
| Jan 10 | NFP | 165k | -10k | BLS |
| Dec 18 | Fed Rate | 4.50% | -25bps | Fed |
Quarterly %
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED) • 2025-07-01
•Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)LIVE
CPI YoY %
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) • 2025-12-01
•Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)LIVE
Treasury rates
What this curve suggests
- The curve is relatively flat, suggesting cautious growth expectations.
- Markets may be pricing in near-term rate cuts.
- Yield curve shape can change rapidly with policy shifts.
Source: US Treasury (via FRED) • 2026-01-15
•US Treasury (via FRED)LIVE
Coverage: 2020–2024
Annual data typically lags. Latest available: 2024
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $28.8T | 124% | -3.1% | 4.0% | -6.5% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $27.4T | 122% | -3.0% | 3.8% | -6.3% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $25.5T | 121% | -3.8% | 3.3% | -5.4% | 6.5% |
| 2021 | $23.3T | 126% | -3.6% | 12.0% | -12.0% | 7.0% |
| 2020 | $21.0T | 128% | -2.9% | 15.0% | -15.0% | 1.2% |
Value added by sector · Latest available: 2023